Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Oscar Predictions: Visual Categories

Many people ignore the visual technical categories. They are not very glamorous, have no stars, etc.. But they do affect everything that we see in the movies, and are filled with talented people.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Odds:
2-1
For It: As the lone nominee from the Best Picture line-up, this has got to be seen as the heavy favorite. It doesn’t hurt that the interior environments, as well as Pandorum itself are visual marvels to look at.
Against It: Since most of it is done via a computer, there will be some traditionalists who may want to look elsewhere for this prize. This more often than not goes to a period film.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Odds:
20-1
For It: Terry Gilliam’s films always create unique environments for the movies to take place in. This one contrasts the dark, dirty streets with imaginative environments inside the characters minds.
Against It: Few saw this film, and even fewer truly embraced it. Art Direction usually goes to a period movie, and I doubt that the voters who want to change that are going to vote for this instead of Avatar.

Nine
Odds:
10-1
For It: Recreating the Italy of Fellini films of the 1960s with flair and panache. The “real” environments and the “stage” environments thing worked very well for Marshall’s Chicago, which won this prize.
Against It: Nine is not Chicago, and it not likely to win much of anything, since it was clearly a disappointment.

Sherlock Holmes
Odds:
15-1
For It: Recreated the Holmes era of England with style to spare, with many distinctive settings for the actors to move around in.
Against It: The film wasn’t very well liked by the Academy. Period pieces win here, but mainly the austere, prestige kind – not the period action film which this is. Camera moves be so quick, as well as the editing, never really lets you focus on the sets.

The Young Victoria
Odds:
4-1
For It: The type of film that usually wins this category, as here we have royalty moving among their castles, and their mansions, with a lot of slow, gentle camera work to allow you time to swoon all over the environments. It doesn’t hurt that the film itself can be kind of dull, so looking at the surroundings is often more interesting than listening the characters talk. Being a Best Picture nominee isn’t a must for this category.
Against It: But it does seem like being a film that the Academy quite liked is. The Young Victoria got shut out of the major categories, and doesn’t have anywhere near the support of Avatar, which also will likely not split its vote like The Young Victoria may with the other period films.

Who Will Win: Avatar really does need this award if it’s going to challenge for the Best Picture Oscar. Since I think it will do that, I think that it will win this one as well.

Who Should Win: Inglorious Basterds has far and away the best art direction of the year. Wait, they didn’t nominate it? Idiots. Oh well, then give to A Serious Man instead. What, still no nomination, Okay, District 9. Again, no nomination? Fantastic Mr. Fox? Public Enemies? No and No? Jesus, okay then just give the damn thing to Avatar.

Least of the Nominees: This is a rather dull slate for me. Sherlock Holmes is probably my least favorite here, but ask me on another day I might say Dr. Parnassus or even The Young Victoria instead.

Best Cinematography
Avatar – Mauro Fiore
Odds:
4-1
For It: It is the most visually stunning film of the year, and the outdoor vistas, and the exciting camera work on the action sequences make this seem like it could be win this award.
Against It: There are many who still think that this whole movie was put together by a computer. I wonder if a lot of them won’t want to go to something where the cinematographer actually shot what we saw on screen.

Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
Odds:
5-1
For It: It has the epic feel of many previous winners. Robert Richardson has won several times in the past, and he certainly gives the film a distinct look all of its own.
Against It: WWII photography? Been there, rewarded that. They have gone a little more exciting (read quick) in the past few years, and there is no need to give Richardson another award.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel
Odds:
25-1
For It: Delbonnel is certainly a well regarded cinematographer, and his work on the sixth Harry Potter film is dark, moody and wonderful. Many do love this series.
Against It: But they don’t seem to be in the Academy, as the film hasn’t really done all that well here. This was a surprising nominee, and if they want to give to a film loaded with special effects, then they’ll go with Avatar.

The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
Odds:
3-1
For It: It has the most exciting visual feel of any of the movies here. The look of film, with all its sun burnt colors, and exciting camera work adds to the experience more than most of the other nominees.
Against It: But is it the camera work or the editing that is truly special for this film? Those who prefer longer shots, will likely go elsewhere.

The White Ribbon – Christen Berger
Odds:
10-1
For It: People do love black and white photography, and Christen Berger’s work is one of the most praised elements of this critical favorite. It has the feel of a classic movie. The surprise win at the ASC helps.
Against It: But it’s in German, and the least seen of the nominees. The movie will likely get its award in foreign language, meaning there is no need to give it another Oscar. The ASC is made up of only cinematographers - who wet themselves every time a movie is made in black and white.

Who Will Win: I think it’s a tight three way race between Hurt, Avatar and Basterds, but I think that The Hurt Locker pulls this one out.

Who Should Win: For me, The White Ribbon had more memorable shots and compositions than any of the other nominees, and it is my clear favorite.

Least of the Nominees: I like the Harry Potter movies as much as the next guy, but it is nowhere near Academy Award level in this category.

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Odds:
3-1
For It: The costumes in the film are beautiful, and are of the period that the Academy often goes for. Since the movie’s main character “designs” the costume herself, and there is quite a bit of dialogue devoted to talking it about them, it ensures that they are not far from the viewer’s memory. This movie had quite a lot of fans, although it didn’t translate into many Oscar nominations.
Against It: Could that be because the fans weren’t in the Academy? If they want to give to a movie about a designer, there is a much more iconic one in the competition.

Coco Before Chanel
Odds:
5-1
For It: That iconic designer I just talked about. It’s Coco Chanel. Like Bright Star, there is a lot of talk about fashion and clothes in this movie, and the costume do look great throughout. It is a period piece, which helps as well.
Against It: Not as popular with critics as some of the other ones, this one runs the risk of being overlooked as it is a French film. Some may foolishly think that all they did was copy Coco’s designs.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Odds:
15-1
For It: The film has a number of outlandish fantasy costumes that certainly do draw your attention while watching the film. The varied work on the film could impress Academy members, and the costumes really do fit the film.
Against It: They are somewhat biased against fantasy films, even in this category. The film never really caught on with audiences, or critics, and runs the risk of being overlooked.

Nine
Odds:
7-1
For It: Great costumes which recreated the Fellini films, and added a sexy element. All the beautiful women in the film at one point or another role around on the ground nearly naked in this movie. A film once thought to be an Oscar frontrunner, it died in most categories, but hung on here.
Against It: Despite being the highest grossing film nominated here, the film was still not a hit with either audiences or critics. It is the highest profile bomb in this category.

The Young Victoria
Odds:
4-1
For It: They do love to celebrate old fashioned English royalty in this category, and the costumes are meticulously put together, and add to the period detail.
Against It: The film never really took off with audiences or critics – many of whom found it far too dull for its own good. If they fall asleep during the film, they likely won’t vote for it.

Who Will Win: An interesting category, as none of these are Best Picture nominees, and none of them were hits with audiences either. I think that the goodwill felt towards Bright Star – which a lot of people loved – will push this one over the top for the win – although I could see Coco, Nine or Victoria taking it as well.

Who Should Win: Once again, my favorites – Where the Wild Things Are, Inglorious Basterds and Public Enemies were shamefully overlooked. Out of this field, I’ll go with Bright Star.

Least of the Nominees: I have seen the types of costumes that Gilliam’s Doctor Parnassus has used before. Sometimes simply being garish is enough to get nominated, but for me, it wasn’t enough for me to actually think them worthy.

Best Film Editing
Avatar
Odds:
4-1
For It: The action sequences are masterfully handled by the editors here – as is usually the case with Cameron’s films, which have won this award in the past. The movie is nearly three hours, but it flows effortlessly. Even those who may inclined to vote against this in other categories, because it was all done on computer, would have a hard time justifying that excuse for this category.
Against It: Perhaps simply because Cameron’s films have won this award in the past, they will not look upon this work quite as favorably. Plus, there is a lot of competition out there.

District 9
Odds:
10-1
For It: This is a real editors showcase – moving from the documentary like cuts in the films first part, into full on action movie mode in the final reel – and pulling off both brilliantly well.
Against It: Those looking to reward science fiction will go with Avatar. Those who like action will go with The Hurt Locker. Will there be anyone left to vote for this one?

The Hurt Locker
Odds:
3-1
For It: Those jittery, intense action sequences are a master class in film editing. There is rapid cutting like a Michael Bay movie, but actually used properly, to heighten the intensity, while still never getting confusing. Really difficult to pull off.
Against It: Considering that a Bourne movie won this two years ago, and Slumdog won last year, this may feel like they are rewarding the same type of thing over and over again. Plus, there is some strong competition.

Inglourious Basterds
Odds:
5-1
For It: For keeping a two and half hour long talk fest moving as rapidly as this one does, the editing deserves a lot of credit. Each “chapter” is pretty much perfectly cut together – none of them becoming so long that they take over the movie, and all moving well. That’s a hard thing to pull off.
Against It: It isn’t as flashy as either The Hurt Locker or Avatar. When the Academy gets together and votes on this one, they usually like to see all the edits around – something that isn’t quite as obvious here.

Precious
Odds:
8-1
For It: A much loved film that really does need to pick up some other awards if it’s going to stay in the big race. The editing here is spot on, and helps the movie keep moving along at a good pace.
Against It: Far and away, the least flashy one here, which pretty much, dooms its chances. The usually like to give this one to war or action movies, unless a film is going to sweep – and Precious won’t be doing that.

Who Will Win: A tight race, with Avatar and Inglorious Basterds nipping at The Hurt Locker’s heels – but I think the war film holds onto this one.

Who Should Win: As much as I loved the worked on Basterds, even I have to admit that no one really gives The Hurt Locker a run for its money this year.

Least of the Nominees: Sorry Precious, but you are just now where close to the other films nominated – and many that weren’t – this year.

Best Makeup
Il Divo
Odds:
15-1
For It: The Academy sometimes goes for realism in this category – and this Italian movies has that in droves, with all the different political figures it helps to recreate here. It stayed in this race despite having almost no buzz at all around it.
Against It: Which is its problem. You know everyone in the Academy has seen Star Trek by now. But how many have actually seen this movie? If they are looking for realistic movie, there is another one nominated.

Star Trek
Odds:
Even
For It: It recreates iconic characters from the TV show, but never really feels like it is simply repeating what came before it. Lots of work here, and it’s all noticeable – a good thing for the Academy. The film has a lot of fans which will want to see this win SOMETHING.
Against It: Many of these designs DID exist before the movie was made, and it was a matter of recreating it. Might not seem as impressive to some Academy members.

The Young VIctoria
Odds:
6-1
For It: The Academy does often embrace fantasy, but they are just as likely to award a highly regarded costume drama, which uses it makeup to help recreate an era – and The Young Victoria falls into that category.
Against It: It isn’t quite as highly regarded as it would have liked to be. Many find the film dull, and if they do, I doubt they’ll vote for it.

Who Will Win: I really don’t think Star Trek has to worry about the other two films beating it this year.

Who Should Win: District 9. But since they’re idiots, I’ll go with Star Trek.

Least of the Nominees: The Young Victoria has a lot of fine work. But that’s just what it is – fine, not great.

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Odds:
Even
For It: Groundbreaking work that completely and totally pushes special effects into the next generation. These types of films are few and far between.
Against It: Nothing.

District 9
Odds:
10-1
For It: If they want more organic feeling special effects, than District 9 is the film to go for. A popular film – hence the nomination – it isn’t winning elsewhere.
Against It: And it ain’t winning here either. Great work, but it isn’t groundbreaking.

Star Trek
Odds:
20-1
For It: The special effects helped make this feel more like a movie, and less like a TV show.
Against It: Again, this isn’t Avatar. The special effects were fine, but not close to Avatar.

Who Will Win: Avatar by a mile.

Who Should Win: Again, Avatar by a mile.

Least of the Nominees: Star Trek is clearly the weakest, even though it is very strong work.

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